Card Betting Tips Today: Expected Cards and Referees
By the TheyShoot editorial team. Updated
Mansfield Town vs Notts County (League One) is the game expected to have the most cards in the next three days: 6.0 in our model. 95 games from Premier League, Championship, League One, League Two, National League, La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga, Scottish Premiership, Scottish Championship and Ligue 1 are below with expected cards and over/under probabilities, adjusted for the referee where one has been named.
Expected cards: next three days
| Match | League | Kick-off (UK) | Expected cards | Over 3.5 | Over 4.5 | Referee |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea vs Manchester United | Premier League | Sat 31 Oct, 12:30 | 5.4 | 78% (1.29) | 62% (1.62) | P Bankes |
| Lincoln City vs Birmingham City | Championship | Sat 31 Oct, 12:30 | 3.8 | 52% (1.92) | 33% (3.00) | L Smith |
| Norwich City vs Watford | Championship | Sat 31 Oct, 12:30 | 4.5 | 64% (1.56) | 46% (2.20) | B Speedie |
| Stoke City vs Preston North End | Championship | Sat 31 Oct, 12:30 | 4.2 | 60% (1.68) | 41% (2.45) | A Herczeg |
| Bradford City vs Huddersfield Town | League One | Sat 31 Oct, 12:30 | 3.7 | 50% (1.98) | 32% (3.16) | L Doughty |
| Leyton Orient vs Cambridge United | League One | Sat 31 Oct, 12:30 | 3.9 | 53% (1.87) | 34% (2.90) | G Laflin |
| Plymouth Argyle vs Reading | League One | Sat 31 Oct, 12:30 | 2.9 | 33% (3.07) | 17% (5.91) | S Martin |
| Grimsby Town vs York City | League Two | Sat 31 Oct, 12:30 | 4.4 | 62% (1.61) | 44% (2.25) | A Jackson |
| Port Vale vs Rochdale | League Two | Sat 31 Oct, 12:30 | 3.5 | 46% (2.17) | 29% (3.48) | E Heaslip |
| Forest Green Rovers vs Harrogate Town | National League | Sat 31 Oct, 12:30 | 4.0 | 56% (1.79) | 37% (2.71) | J Durkin |
| FC Halifax Town vs Yeovil Town | National League | Sat 31 Oct, 12:30 | 3.7 | 50% (2.00) | 31% (3.21) | B Toner |
| Levante vs Atlético Madrid | La Liga | Sat 31 Oct, 13:00 | 4.0 | 57% (1.76) | 38% (2.65) | Not named yet |
| Bologna vs Monza | Serie A | Sat 31 Oct, 14:00 | 3.5 | 46% (2.17) | 28% (3.60) | Not named yet |
| Augsburg vs Freiburg | Bundesliga | Sat 31 Oct, 14:30 | 3.6 | 49% (2.05) | 30% (3.31) | Not named yet |
| Bayer Leverkusen vs Stuttgart | Bundesliga | Sat 31 Oct, 14:30 | 3.9 | 54% (1.84) | 35% (2.82) | Not named yet |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Paderborn | Bundesliga | Sat 31 Oct, 14:30 | 3.8 | 52% (1.93) | 33% (3.04) | Not named yet |
| Schalke 04 vs RB Leipzig | Bundesliga | Sat 31 Oct, 14:30 | 2.8 | 31% (3.20) | 16% (6.24) | Not named yet |
| Werder Bremen vs Hoffenheim | Bundesliga | Sat 31 Oct, 14:30 | 3.1 | 38% (2.60) | 21% (4.67) | Not named yet |
| AFC Bournemouth vs Leeds United | Premier League | Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 | 3.9 | 53% (1.87) | 34% (2.90) | M Salisbury |
| Brentford vs Nottingham Forest | Premier League | Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 | 3.8 | 53% (1.89) | 34% (2.95) | D England |
| Coventry City vs Sunderland | Premier League | Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 | 3.2 | 40% (2.52) | 22% (4.48) | S Hooper |
| Hull City vs Ipswich Town | Premier League | Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 | 3.7 | 50% (2.02) | 31% (3.25) | T Kirk |
| Manchester City vs Brighton & Hove Albion | Premier League | Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 | 4.2 | 60% (1.66) | 41% (2.42) | C Pawson |
| Bolton Wanderers vs Bristol City | Championship | Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 | 3.2 | 40% (2.47) | 23% (4.32) | R Madley |
| Burnley vs Portsmouth | Championship | Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 | 4.6 | 66% (1.50) | 48% (2.07) | R Ricardo |
| Middlesbrough vs Charlton Athletic | Championship | Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 | 3.2 | 39% (2.56) | 22% (4.54) | W Finnie |
| Millwall vs Derby County | Championship | Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 | 5.0 | 72% (1.39) | 54% (1.84) | A Backhouse |
| Southampton vs Queens Park Rangers | Championship | Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 | 4.7 | 69% (1.45) | 51% (1.97) | T Robinson |
| Swansea City vs Blackburn Rovers | Championship | Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 | 3.8 | 53% (1.90) | 34% (2.96) | G Ward |
| West Ham United vs West Bromwich Albion | Championship | Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 | 3.6 | 48% (2.08) | 30% (3.38) | R Jones |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Cardiff City | Championship | Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 | 4.7 | 69% (1.46) | 51% (1.97) | J Smith |
| Barnsley vs Oxford United | League One | Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 | 5.2 | 75% (1.33) | 58% (1.72) | O Mackey |
| Leicester City vs Stevenage | League One | Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 | 3.6 | 49% (2.05) | 30% (3.32) | S Parkinson |
| Mansfield Town vs Notts County | League One | Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 | 6.0 | 84% (1.18) | 71% (1.41) | S Stockbridge |
| MK Dons vs Doncaster Rovers | League One | Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 | 3.6 | 49% (2.06) | 30% (3.34) | A Humphries |
| Peterborough United vs Luton Town | League One | Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 | 3.3 | 43% (2.34) | 25% (4.02) | L Sandoe |
| Stockport County vs AFC Wimbledon | League One | Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 | 2.7 | 28% (3.60) | 14% (7.39) | D Whitestone |
| Wigan Athletic vs Bromley | League One | Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 | 3.4 | 45% (2.23) | 27% (3.76) | M Coy |
| Wycombe Wanderers vs Burton Albion | League One | Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 | 3.4 | 44% (2.26) | 26% (3.83) | T Parsons |
| Accrington Stanley vs Northampton Town | League Two | Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 | 4.1 | 56% (1.78) | 38% (2.61) | N Smith |
| Colchester United vs Walsall | League Two | Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 | 4.2 | 58% (1.73) | 40% (2.51) | D Brown |
| Crewe Alexandra vs Barnet | League Two | Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 | 4.2 | 58% (1.73) | 40% (2.50) | H Blair |
| Fleetwood Town vs Bristol Rovers | League Two | Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 | 4.8 | 68% (1.48) | 50% (1.98) | R Eley |
| Oldham Athletic vs Crawley Town | League Two | Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 | 5.0 | 71% (1.41) | 54% (1.85) | D Rock |
| Salford City vs Exeter City | League Two | Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 | 3.6 | 48% (2.10) | 30% (3.31) | O Langford |
| Shrewsbury Town vs Gillingham | League Two | Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 | 5.1 | 72% (1.38) | 56% (1.79) | N Hair |
| Swindon Town vs Rotherham United | League Two | Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 | 2.6 | 27% (3.74) | 14% (7.31) | I Searle |
| Tranmere Rovers vs Cheltenham Town | League Two | Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 | 3.9 | 54% (1.85) | 36% (2.77) | R Martin |
| Aldershot Town vs Gateshead | National League | Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 | 4.5 | 66% (1.52) | 47% (2.12) | T Sangowawa |
| Altrincham vs Carlisle United | National League | Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 | 4.6 | 68% (1.48) | 49% (2.03) | D Baines |
| Barrow vs Eastleigh | National League | Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 | 5.3 | 77% (1.30) | 61% (1.64) | P Marsden |
| Boreham Wood vs Hartlepool United | National League | Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 | 3.9 | 54% (1.85) | 35% (2.86) | D Blades |
| Solihull Moors vs Kidderminster Harriers | National League | Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 | 4.4 | 63% (1.59) | 44% (2.28) | O Yates |
| Tamworth vs Woking | National League | Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 | 4.5 | 65% (1.55) | 46% (2.17) | M Mcquillan |
| Wealdstone vs Southend United | National League | Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 | 3.9 | 55% (1.82) | 36% (2.79) | J Richardson |
| Worthing vs Sutton United | National League | Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 | 4.6 | 67% (1.49) | 49% (2.05) | H Wager |
| Kilmarnock vs St Johnstone | Scottish Premiership | Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 | 3.0 | 36% (2.76) | 20% (4.97) | M MacDermid |
| Motherwell vs St Mirren | Scottish Premiership | Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 | 3.8 | 52% (1.92) | 34% (2.96) | D Robertson |
| Arbroath vs Raith Rovers | Scottish Championship | Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 | 3.7 | 52% (1.94) | 32% (3.10) | G Irvine |
| Ayr United vs Queen's Park | Scottish Championship | Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 | 4.8 | 70% (1.43) | 52% (1.94) | K Clancy |
| Dunfermline Athletic vs Inverness Caledonian Thistle | Scottish Championship | Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 | 3.2 | 39% (2.55) | 22% (4.65) | J Wilkie |
| Partick Thistle vs Greenock Morton | Scottish Championship | Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 | 3.8 | 52% (1.92) | 33% (3.05) | C Steven |
| Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo | La Liga | Sat 31 Oct, 15:15 | 4.7 | 68% (1.47) | 50% (2.01) | Not named yet |
| Udinese vs Roma | Serie A | Sat 31 Oct, 17:00 | 2.9 | 34% (2.93) | 18% (5.51) | Not named yet |
| Tottenham Hotspur vs Crystal Palace | Premier League | Sat 31 Oct, 17:30 | 3.3 | 41% (2.42) | 24% (4.23) | M Oliver |
| Boston United vs Scunthorpe United | National League | Sat 31 Oct, 17:30 | 4.0 | 57% (1.77) | 37% (2.67) | A Bannister |
| Real Betis vs Málaga | La Liga | Sat 31 Oct, 17:30 | 3.8 | 52% (1.91) | 33% (3.00) | Not named yet |
| Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | Sat 31 Oct, 17:30 | 3.7 | 51% (1.95) | 32% (3.09) | Not named yet |
| AC Milan vs Inter Milan | Serie A | Sat 31 Oct, 19:45 | 3.2 | 39% (2.55) | 22% (4.53) | Not named yet |
| Troyes vs Le Mans | Ligue 1 | Sat 31 Oct, 19:45 | 3.9 | 55% (1.82) | 35% (2.83) | Not named yet |
| Aston Villa vs Fulham | Premier League | Sat 31 Oct, 20:00 | 3.9 | 55% (1.82) | 36% (2.78) | S Barrott |
| Barcelona vs Alavés | La Liga | Sat 31 Oct, 20:00 | 3.6 | 48% (2.10) | 29% (3.45) | Not named yet |
| Como vs Venezia | Serie A | Sun 1 Nov, 11:30 | 3.4 | 44% (2.26) | 26% (3.81) | Not named yet |
| Falkirk vs Celtic | Scottish Premiership | Sun 1 Nov, 13:00 | 3.6 | 47% (2.13) | 29% (3.43) | D Nicolson |
| Getafe vs Sevilla | La Liga | Sun 1 Nov, 13:00 | 5.6 | 81% (1.24) | 66% (1.52) | Not named yet |
| Sheffield Wednesday vs Blackpool | League One | Sun 1 Nov, 14:00 | 3.5 | 45% (2.22) | 27% (3.73) | S Mather |
| Frosinone vs Torino | Serie A | Sun 1 Nov, 14:00 | 2.9 | 33% (2.99) | 18% (5.69) | Not named yet |
| Lazio vs Cagliari | Serie A | Sun 1 Nov, 14:00 | 3.4 | 44% (2.27) | 26% (3.84) | Not named yet |
| Strasbourg vs Auxerre | Ligue 1 | Sun 1 Nov, 14:00 | 3.1 | 38% (2.62) | 21% (4.82) | Not named yet |
| Union Berlin vs FC Köln | Bundesliga | Sun 1 Nov, 14:30 | 4.2 | 59% (1.69) | 40% (2.50) | Not named yet |
| Racing Santander vs Real Madrid | La Liga | Sun 1 Nov, 15:15 | 5.6 | 81% (1.24) | 66% (1.53) | Not named yet |
| Lyon vs Angers | Ligue 1 | Sun 1 Nov, 16:15 | 3.3 | 43% (2.33) | 25% (4.07) | Not named yet |
| Paris FC vs Monaco | Ligue 1 | Sun 1 Nov, 16:15 | 4.2 | 60% (1.68) | 40% (2.49) | Not named yet |
| Liverpool vs Arsenal | Premier League | Sun 1 Nov, 16:30 | 4.8 | 70% (1.44) | 52% (1.94) | A Madley |
| Eintracht Frankfurt vs Hamburg | Bundesliga | Sun 1 Nov, 16:30 | 3.4 | 43% (2.33) | 25% (3.99) | Not named yet |
| Lecce vs Genoa | Serie A | Sun 1 Nov, 17:00 | 3.1 | 38% (2.62) | 21% (4.72) | Not named yet |
| Elche vs Valencia | La Liga | Sun 1 Nov, 17:30 | 4.9 | 71% (1.40) | 54% (1.87) | Not named yet |
| Juventus vs Napoli | Serie A | Sun 1 Nov, 19:45 | 2.6 | 28% (3.62) | 14% (7.40) | Not named yet |
| Marseille vs Toulouse | Ligue 1 | Sun 1 Nov, 19:45 | 3.8 | 52% (1.94) | 32% (3.10) | Not named yet |
| Athletic Bilbao vs Real Sociedad | La Liga | Sun 1 Nov, 20:00 | 4.5 | 66% (1.52) | 47% (2.12) | Not named yet |
| Sassuolo vs Fiorentina | Serie A | Mon 2 Nov, 17:30 | 3.8 | 52% (1.92) | 33% (3.00) | Not named yet |
| Atalanta vs Parma | Serie A | Mon 2 Nov, 19:45 | 2.7 | 30% (3.38) | 15% (6.73) | Not named yet |
| Lorient vs Brest | Ligue 1 | Mon 2 Nov, 19:45 | 3.5 | 46% (2.18) | 27% (3.70) | Not named yet |
| Newcastle United vs Everton | Premier League | Mon 2 Nov, 20:00 | 5.3 | 77% (1.31) | 60% (1.66) | J Brooks |
| Deportivo La Coruña vs Osasuna | La Liga | Mon 2 Nov, 20:00 | 4.4 | 64% (1.57) | 45% (2.22) | Not named yet |
Fair odds in brackets are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin.
Cards per game by league
| League | Games | Cards per game | Over 3.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 80 | 4.16 | 57% |
| Championship | 144 | 4.01 | 51% |
| League One | 143 | 3.76 | 50% |
| League Two | 151 | 4.15 | 57% |
| National League | 177 | 4.16 | 62% |
| Scottish Premiership | 66 | 3.88 | 59% |
| Scottish Championship | 59 | 3.90 | 54% |
| La Liga | 99 | 4.67 | 69% |
| Serie A | 90 | 3.24 | 41% |
| Bundesliga | 63 | 3.63 | 51% |
| Ligue 1 | 72 | 3.68 | 51% |
How the cards model works
Each team gets a rating for cards it receives and cards its opponents receive, compared with the league average and adjusted for home advantage. When the referee is known, the total is scaled by that referee's cards per game, blended with the league average so a few games don't dominate. Read our betting explainers for how card and booking-points markets are settled.
How these numbers are made
Results and match stats come from Football-Data.co.uk, which updates its files a few times a week. It's a statistical baseline, not a tip: team news, derbies and the match situation all matter. Data updated 30 October at 18:40 UK time.
FAQs
Does the referee affect how many cards are shown?
Yes. Some referees show noticeably more cards per game than others, so the model adjusts for the named referee once they've taken charge of a few games.