Millwall vs Derby County Prediction & Stats
By the TheyShoot editorial team. Updated
Our model makes Millwall favourites: Millwall 59%, draw 22%, Derby County 20%. Kick-off is Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 UK time (Championship). Expected goals are 1.95–1.03, and both teams score in 55% of simulations.
Model view (not a tip)
- Millwall
- 59%
- fair 1.71
- Draw
- 22%
- fair 4.60
- Derby County
- 20%
- fair 5.08
Millwall vs Derby County prediction
The model expects 1.95 goals from Millwall and 1.03 from Derby County. Both teams to score is 55% likely, and over 2.5 goals 57%. The three most likely scores are 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (10%).
Corners and cards
- Expected corners: 11.7 (Millwall 6.3, Derby County 5.4). Over 9.5 corners: 70%.
- Expected cards: 5.0. Over 3.5 cards: 72%. Referee: A Backhouse, who averages 4.00 cards per game this season.
Form and league position
| Team | Position | Points | Last 5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Millwall | 13 | 15 | D W L D L |
| Derby County | 23 | 7 | D D L L D |
- Portsmouth 2–1 Millwall
- Millwall 2–2 Lincoln City
- Millwall 0–1 Swansea City
- Sheffield United 1–1 Derby County
- Derby County 0–1 Stoke City
- Queens Park Rangers 4–1 Derby County
Team news can change the picture: the model doesn't know about injuries or rotation. See every Championship game on our Championship predictions page.
How these numbers are made
Results and match stats come from Football-Data.co.uk, which updates its files a few times a week. Includes results up to 24 October. Probabilities come from the TheyShoot model: a Poisson goals model built from every Championship result this season, rating each team's attack and defence with home advantage, and pulled towards last season's league average early on. It's a statistical baseline, not a tip; fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. Data updated 30 October at 18:40 UK time.
FAQs
Who will win Millwall vs Derby County?
Our model gives Millwall a 59% chance, the draw 22% and Derby County 20%.
What time is Millwall vs Derby County?
Kick-off is Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 UK time.
Will both teams score in Millwall vs Derby County?
The model puts both teams to score at 55%.