Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction & Stats
By the TheyShoot editorial team. Updated
Our model makes Bayern Munich favourites: Bayern Munich 63%, draw 20%, Borussia Dortmund 17%. Kick-off is Sat 31 Oct, 17:30 UK time (Bundesliga). Expected goals are 2.12–0.99, and both teams score in 55% of simulations.
Model view (not a tip)
- Bayern Munich
- 63%
- fair 1.58
- Draw
- 20%
- fair 4.98
- Borussia Dortmund
- 17%
- fair 5.95
Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund prediction
The model expects 2.12 goals from Bayern Munich and 0.99 from Borussia Dortmund. Both teams to score is 55% likely, and over 2.5 goals 60%. The three most likely scores are 2-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (9%).
Corners and cards
- Expected corners: 11.2 (Bayern Munich 7.5, Borussia Dortmund 3.7). Over 9.5 corners: 68%.
- Expected cards: 3.7. Over 3.5 cards: 51%.
Form and league position
| Team | Position | Points | Last 5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich | 1 | 17 | W W D W W |
| Borussia Dortmund | 2 | 17 | W W D D W |
- Freiburg 1–3 Bayern Munich
- Bayern Munich 6–1 RB Leipzig
- Augsburg 2–2 Bayern Munich
- Borussia Dortmund 1–0 Eintracht Frankfurt
- Union Berlin 0–0 Borussia Dortmund
- Borussia Dortmund 2–2 Werder Bremen
Team news can change the picture: the model doesn't know about injuries or rotation. See every Bundesliga game on our Bundesliga predictions page.
How these numbers are made
Results and match stats come from Football-Data.co.uk, which updates its files a few times a week. Includes results up to 25 October. Probabilities come from the TheyShoot model: a Poisson goals model built from every Bundesliga result this season, rating each team's attack and defence with home advantage, and pulled towards last season's league average early on. It's a statistical baseline, not a tip; fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. Data updated 30 October at 18:40 UK time.
FAQs
Who will win Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our model gives Bayern Munich a 63% chance, the draw 20% and Borussia Dortmund 17%.
What time is Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund?
Kick-off is Sat 31 Oct, 17:30 UK time.
Will both teams score in Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund?
The model puts both teams to score at 55%.