Marseille vs Toulouse Prediction & Stats
By the TheyShoot editorial team. Updated
Our model makes Marseille favourites: Marseille 52%, draw 21%, Toulouse 27%. Kick-off is Sun 1 Nov, 19:45 UK time (Ligue 1). Expected goals are 2.04–1.42, and both teams score in 66% of simulations.
Model view (not a tip)
- Marseille
- 52%
- fair 1.92
- Draw
- 21%
- fair 4.67
- Toulouse
- 27%
- fair 3.76
Marseille vs Toulouse prediction
The model expects 2.04 goals from Marseille and 1.42 from Toulouse. Both teams to score is 66% likely, and over 2.5 goals 67%. The three most likely scores are 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (9%), 2-2 (7%).
Corners and cards
- Expected corners: 8.3 (Marseille 4.4, Toulouse 4.0). Over 9.5 corners: 33%.
- Expected cards: 3.8. Over 3.5 cards: 52%.
Form and league position
| Team | Position | Points | Last 5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marseille | 8 | 12 | L L W W W |
| Toulouse | 11 | 10 | D W D W D |
- Marseille 4–3 Le Havre
- Angers 2–5 Marseille
- Troyes 0–2 Marseille
- Toulouse 0–0 Troyes
- Le Mans 0–3 Toulouse
- Monaco 2–2 Toulouse
Team news can change the picture: the model doesn't know about injuries or rotation. See every Ligue 1 game on our Ligue 1 predictions page.
How these numbers are made
Results and match stats come from Football-Data.co.uk, which updates its files a few times a week. Includes results up to 26 October. Probabilities come from the TheyShoot model: a Poisson goals model built from every Ligue 1 result this season, rating each team's attack and defence with home advantage, and pulled towards last season's league average early on. It's a statistical baseline, not a tip; fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. Data updated 30 October at 18:40 UK time.
FAQs
Who will win Marseille vs Toulouse?
Our model gives Marseille a 52% chance, the draw 21% and Toulouse 27%.
What time is Marseille vs Toulouse?
Kick-off is Sun 1 Nov, 19:45 UK time.
Will both teams score in Marseille vs Toulouse?
The model puts both teams to score at 66%.