Championship Predictions & Betting Tips
By the TheyShoot editorial team. Updated
Middlesbrough are the model's strongest Championship favourites in the next few days, with a 66% chance of beating Charlton Athletic. 12 upcoming games are below with win, draw, BTTS and over 2.5 goals probabilities, followed by the projected final table.
Championship predictions: next 12 games
| Match | Kick-off (UK) | Home | Draw | Away | BTTS | Over 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sheffield United vs Wrexham | Fri 30 Oct, 20:00 | 48% | 25% | 26% | 52% | 49% |
| Lincoln City vs Birmingham City | Sat 31 Oct, 12:30 | 25% | 25% | 50% | 52% | 49% |
| Norwich City vs Watford | Sat 31 Oct, 12:30 | 57% | 22% | 21% | 57% | 59% |
| Stoke City vs Preston North End | Sat 31 Oct, 12:30 | 66% | 20% | 15% | 52% | 58% |
| Bolton Wanderers vs Bristol City | Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 | 40% | 26% | 34% | 54% | 49% |
| Burnley vs Portsmouth | Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 | 34% | 24% | 42% | 61% | 59% |
| Middlesbrough vs Charlton Athletic | Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 | 66% | 19% | 15% | 56% | 63% |
| Millwall vs Derby County | Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 | 59% | 22% | 20% | 55% | 57% |
| Southampton vs Queens Park Rangers | Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 | 48% | 25% | 27% | 54% | 52% |
| Swansea City vs Blackburn Rovers | Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 | 43% | 26% | 30% | 52% | 48% |
| West Ham United vs West Bromwich Albion | Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 | 59% | 21% | 20% | 59% | 62% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Cardiff City | Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 | 47% | 23% | 29% | 61% | 59% |
Open any match for expected goals, likely scores, corners, cards and form.
Predicted Championship final table 2026-27
| # | Team | Pts now | Projected pts | Title | Top 2 (promoted) | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | West Ham United | 22 | 81 | 29% | 49% | 0% |
| 2 | Southampton | 24 | 80 | 23% | 43% | 0% |
| 3 | Middlesbrough | 25 | 80 | 23% | 42% | 0% |
| 4 | Queens Park Rangers | 20 | 73 | 5% | 14% | 0% |
| 5 | Birmingham City | 20 | 73 | 5% | 13% | 0% |
| 6 | Swansea City | 23 | 72 | 4% | 10% | 0% |
| 7 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 21 | 71 | 3% | 8% | 0% |
| 8 | West Bromwich Albion | 21 | 70 | 2% | 6% | 0% |
| 9 | Stoke City | 20 | 68 | 2% | 5% | 0% |
| 10 | Blackburn Rovers | 18 | 67 | 1% | 4% | 1% |
| 11 | Portsmouth | 18 | 66 | 1% | 3% | 1% |
| 12 | Sheffield United | 16 | 63 | 0% | 1% | 2% |
| 13 | Cardiff City | 14 | 63 | 0% | 1% | 3% |
| 14 | Millwall | 15 | 61 | 0% | 1% | 4% |
| 15 | Bristol City | 15 | 59 | 0% | 0% | 7% |
| 16 | Wrexham | 14 | 59 | 0% | 0% | 7% |
| 17 | Norwich City | 12 | 58 | 0% | 0% | 9% |
| 18 | Lincoln City | 15 | 57 | 0% | 0% | 12% |
| 19 | Bolton Wanderers | 14 | 56 | 0% | 0% | 13% |
| 20 | Charlton Athletic | 14 | 55 | 0% | 0% | 16% |
| 21 | Watford | 11 | 50 | 0% | 0% | 38% |
| 22 | Burnley | 8 | 49 | 0% | 0% | 43% |
| 23 | Derby County | 7 | 46 | 0% | 0% | 61% |
| 24 | Preston North End | 5 | 41 | 0% | 0% | 84% |
We play every remaining Championship fixture 5,000 times from the model. Ratings for this projection are pulled more strongly towards the league average, so a hot start alone doesn't decide the title. Play-offs aren't simulated.
Current Championship table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Middlesbrough | 12 | +10 | 25 |
| 2 | Southampton | 12 | +12 | 24 |
| 3 | Swansea City | 12 | +3 | 23 |
| 4 | West Ham United | 12 | +17 | 22 |
| 5 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 12 | +4 | 21 |
| 6 | West Bromwich Albion | 12 | +3 | 21 |
| 7 | Birmingham City | 12 | +8 | 20 |
| 8 | Queens Park Rangers | 12 | +8 | 20 |
| 9 | Stoke City | 12 | +2 | 20 |
| 10 | Blackburn Rovers | 12 | +3 | 18 |
| 11 | Portsmouth | 12 | +1 | 18 |
| 12 | Sheffield United | 12 | +1 | 16 |
| 13 | Millwall | 12 | -1 | 15 |
| 14 | Bristol City | 12 | -3 | 15 |
| 15 | Lincoln City | 12 | -7 | 15 |
| 16 | Cardiff City | 12 | +2 | 14 |
| 17 | Wrexham | 12 | -3 | 14 |
| 18 | Bolton Wanderers | 12 | -7 | 14 |
| 19 | Charlton Athletic | 12 | -7 | 14 |
| 20 | Norwich City | 12 | -2 | 12 |
| 21 | Watford | 12 | -10 | 11 |
| 22 | Burnley | 12 | -8 | 8 |
| 23 | Derby County | 12 | -11 | 7 |
| 24 | Preston North End | 12 | -15 | 5 |
Full table, corners, cards and shots: Championship stats.
How these numbers are made
Results and match stats come from Football-Data.co.uk, which updates its files a few times a week. Includes results up to 24 October. Probabilities come from the TheyShoot model: a Poisson goals model built from every Championship result this season, rating each team's attack and defence with home advantage, and pulled towards last season's league average early on. It's a statistical baseline, not a tip; fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. Data updated 30 October at 18:40 UK time.
FAQs
Who is top of the Championship?
Middlesbrough, with 25 points from 12 games (results up to 24 October).
Who will win the Championship?
Our model makes West Ham United favourites, finishing top in 29% of simulated seasons.
How are these Championship predictions made?
From every result this season: each team gets an attack and a defence rating, adjusted for home advantage, and the model turns those into goal probabilities. Team news isn't included.