Athletic Bilbao vs Real Sociedad Prediction & Stats
By the TheyShoot editorial team. Updated
Our model makes Athletic Bilbao favourites: Athletic Bilbao 51%, draw 23%, Real Sociedad 26%. Kick-off is Sun 1 Nov, 20:00 UK time (La Liga). Expected goals are 1.79–1.22, and both teams score in 59% of simulations.
Model view (not a tip)
- Athletic Bilbao
- 51%
- fair 1.98
- Draw
- 23%
- fair 4.31
- Real Sociedad
- 26%
- fair 3.82
Athletic Bilbao vs Real Sociedad prediction
The model expects 1.79 goals from Athletic Bilbao and 1.22 from Real Sociedad. Both teams to score is 59% likely, and over 2.5 goals 58%. The three most likely scores are 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (9%).
Corners and cards
- Expected corners: 10.9 (Athletic Bilbao 5.9, Real Sociedad 5.0). Over 9.5 corners: 60%.
- Expected cards: 4.5. Over 3.5 cards: 66%.
Form and league position
| Team | Position | Points | Last 5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Bilbao | 8 | 12 | D D D L W |
| Real Sociedad | 5 | 19 | L W W W W |
- Athletic Bilbao 4–0 Getafe
- Levante 3–1 Athletic Bilbao
- Valencia 0–0 Athletic Bilbao
- Real Sociedad 2–1 Levante
- Málaga 2–5 Real Sociedad
- Real Sociedad 3–2 Deportivo La Coruña
Team news can change the picture: the model doesn't know about injuries or rotation. See every La Liga game on our La Liga predictions page.
How these numbers are made
Results and match stats come from Football-Data.co.uk, which updates its files a few times a week. Includes results up to 26 October. Probabilities come from the TheyShoot model: a Poisson goals model built from every La Liga result this season, rating each team's attack and defence with home advantage, and pulled towards last season's league average early on. It's a statistical baseline, not a tip; fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. Data updated 30 October at 18:40 UK time.
FAQs
Who will win Athletic Bilbao vs Real Sociedad?
Our model gives Athletic Bilbao a 51% chance, the draw 23% and Real Sociedad 26%.
What time is Athletic Bilbao vs Real Sociedad?
Kick-off is Sun 1 Nov, 20:00 UK time.
Will both teams score in Athletic Bilbao vs Real Sociedad?
The model puts both teams to score at 59%.