Serie A Predictions & Betting Tips
By the TheyShoot editorial team. Updated
Como are the model's strongest Serie A favourites in the next few days, with a 72% chance of beating Venezia. 10 upcoming games are below with win, draw, BTTS and over 2.5 goals probabilities, followed by the projected final table.
Serie A predictions: next 10 games
| Match | Kick-off (UK) | Home | Draw | Away | BTTS | Over 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna vs Monza | Sat 31 Oct, 14:00 | 49% | 22% | 29% | 67% | 68% |
| Udinese vs Roma | Sat 31 Oct, 17:00 | 12% | 16% | 72% | 56% | 67% |
| AC Milan vs Inter Milan | Sat 31 Oct, 19:45 | 31% | 22% | 47% | 68% | 69% |
| Como vs Venezia | Sun 1 Nov, 11:30 | 72% | 17% | 10% | 46% | 57% |
| Frosinone vs Torino | Sun 1 Nov, 14:00 | 53% | 20% | 27% | 70% | 72% |
| Lazio vs Cagliari | Sun 1 Nov, 14:00 | 68% | 19% | 13% | 48% | 55% |
| Lecce vs Genoa | Sun 1 Nov, 17:00 | 35% | 26% | 39% | 54% | 49% |
| Juventus vs Napoli | Sun 1 Nov, 19:45 | 32% | 26% | 42% | 54% | 49% |
| Sassuolo vs Fiorentina | Mon 2 Nov, 17:30 | 46% | 21% | 33% | 73% | 75% |
| Atalanta vs Parma | Mon 2 Nov, 19:45 | 56% | 23% | 21% | 55% | 55% |
Open any match for expected goals, likely scores, corners, cards and form.
Predicted Serie A final table 2026-27
| # | Team | Pts now | Projected pts | Title | Top 4 | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lazio | 25 | 75 | 35% | 89% | 0% |
| 2 | Inter Milan | 25 | 75 | 34% | 89% | 0% |
| 3 | Roma | 21 | 71 | 21% | 80% | 0% |
| 4 | Como | 20 | 66 | 6% | 54% | 0% |
| 5 | AC Milan | 18 | 62 | 2% | 30% | 0% |
| 6 | Frosinone | 17 | 62 | 2% | 28% | 0% |
| 7 | Napoli | 14 | 59 | 1% | 15% | 0% |
| 8 | Juventus | 14 | 55 | 0% | 6% | 1% |
| 9 | Torino | 13 | 53 | 0% | 3% | 2% |
| 10 | Bologna | 11 | 52 | 0% | 2% | 3% |
| 11 | Atalanta | 11 | 50 | 0% | 2% | 4% |
| 12 | Cagliari | 13 | 50 | 0% | 1% | 5% |
| 13 | Genoa | 10 | 47 | 0% | 0% | 11% |
| 14 | Sassuolo | 8 | 44 | 0% | 0% | 20% |
| 15 | Monza | 7 | 43 | 0% | 0% | 23% |
| 16 | Lecce | 9 | 43 | 0% | 0% | 25% |
| 17 | Udinese | 5 | 39 | 0% | 0% | 43% |
| 18 | Fiorentina | 5 | 39 | 0% | 0% | 44% |
| 19 | Parma | 5 | 38 | 0% | 0% | 49% |
| 20 | Venezia | 3 | 34 | 0% | 0% | 70% |
We play every remaining Serie A fixture 5,000 times from the model. Ratings for this projection are pulled more strongly towards the league average, so a hot start alone doesn't decide the title. Play-offs aren't simulated.
Current Serie A table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter Milan | 9 | +15 | 25 |
| 2 | Lazio | 9 | +15 | 25 |
| 3 | Roma | 9 | +15 | 21 |
| 4 | Como | 9 | +9 | 20 |
| 5 | AC Milan | 9 | +7 | 18 |
| 6 | Frosinone | 9 | +8 | 17 |
| 7 | Napoli | 9 | +6 | 14 |
| 8 | Juventus | 9 | +1 | 14 |
| 9 | Torino | 9 | 0 | 13 |
| 10 | Cagliari | 9 | -5 | 13 |
| 11 | Bologna | 9 | 0 | 11 |
| 12 | Atalanta | 9 | -1 | 11 |
| 13 | Genoa | 9 | -5 | 10 |
| 14 | Lecce | 9 | -9 | 9 |
| 15 | Sassuolo | 9 | -8 | 8 |
| 16 | Monza | 9 | -6 | 7 |
| 17 | Udinese | 9 | -9 | 5 |
| 18 | Fiorentina | 9 | -10 | 5 |
| 19 | Parma | 9 | -10 | 5 |
| 20 | Venezia | 9 | -13 | 3 |
Full table, corners, cards and shots: Serie A stats.
How these numbers are made
Results and match stats come from Football-Data.co.uk, which updates its files a few times a week. Includes results up to 29 October. Probabilities come from the TheyShoot model: a Poisson goals model built from every Serie A result this season, rating each team's attack and defence with home advantage, and pulled towards last season's league average early on. It's a statistical baseline, not a tip; fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. Data updated 30 October at 18:40 UK time.
FAQs
Who is top of the Serie A?
Inter Milan, with 25 points from 9 games (results up to 29 October).
Who will win the Serie A?
Our model makes Lazio favourites, finishing top in 35% of simulated seasons.
How are these Serie A predictions made?
From every result this season: each team gets an attack and a defence rating, adjusted for home advantage, and the model turns those into goal probabilities. Team news isn't included.