National League Predictions
By the TheyShoot editorial team. Updated
Boreham Wood are the model's strongest National League favourites in the next few days, with a 76% chance of beating Hartlepool United. 11 upcoming games are below with win, draw, BTTS and over 2.5 goals probabilities, followed by the projected final table.
National League predictions: next 11 games
| Match | Kick-off (UK) | Home | Draw | Away | BTTS | Over 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forest Green Rovers vs Harrogate Town | Sat 31 Oct, 12:30 | 33% | 22% | 45% | 68% | 68% |
| FC Halifax Town vs Yeovil Town | Sat 31 Oct, 12:30 | 35% | 23% | 42% | 65% | 63% |
| Aldershot Town vs Gateshead | Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 | 66% | 21% | 13% | 44% | 49% |
| Altrincham vs Carlisle United | Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 | 40% | 24% | 36% | 60% | 57% |
| Barrow vs Eastleigh | Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 | 59% | 22% | 19% | 55% | 57% |
| Boreham Wood vs Hartlepool United | Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 | 76% | 15% | 9% | 49% | 64% |
| Solihull Moors vs Kidderminster Harriers | Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 | 23% | 25% | 52% | 50% | 48% |
| Tamworth vs Woking | Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 | 41% | 21% | 38% | 72% | 73% |
| Wealdstone vs Southend United | Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 | 28% | 21% | 52% | 70% | 72% |
| Worthing vs Sutton United | Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 | 58% | 21% | 20% | 57% | 60% |
| Boston United vs Scunthorpe United | Sat 31 Oct, 17:30 | 45% | 23% | 32% | 63% | 62% |
Open any match for expected goals, likely scores, corners, cards and form.
Predicted National League final table 2026-27
| # | Team | Pts now | Projected pts | Title | Champions (promoted) | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boreham Wood | 41 | 99 | 91% | 91% | 0% |
| 2 | Yeovil Town | 28 | 80 | 3% | 3% | 0% |
| 3 | Harrogate Town | 31 | 79 | 2% | 2% | 0% |
| 4 | Southend United | 29 | 79 | 2% | 2% | 0% |
| 5 | Worthing | 28 | 77 | 1% | 1% | 0% |
| 6 | Barrow | 24 | 73 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 7 | Altrincham | 28 | 73 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 8 | AFC Fylde | 26 | 72 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 9 | Carlisle United | 23 | 70 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 10 | FC Halifax Town | 21 | 67 | 0% | 0% | 1% |
| 11 | Kidderminster Harriers | 21 | 65 | 0% | 0% | 2% |
| 12 | Forest Green Rovers | 18 | 62 | 0% | 0% | 6% |
| 13 | Hornchurch | 21 | 61 | 0% | 0% | 6% |
| 14 | Sutton United | 21 | 61 | 0% | 0% | 6% |
| 15 | Aldershot Town | 18 | 60 | 0% | 0% | 6% |
| 16 | Woking | 18 | 60 | 0% | 0% | 7% |
| 17 | Tamworth | 17 | 59 | 0% | 0% | 12% |
| 18 | Eastleigh | 18 | 57 | 0% | 0% | 17% |
| 19 | Wealdstone | 15 | 54 | 0% | 0% | 26% |
| 20 | Hartlepool United | 15 | 53 | 0% | 0% | 31% |
| 21 | Boston United | 15 | 52 | 0% | 0% | 39% |
| 22 | Scunthorpe United | 10 | 50 | 0% | 0% | 52% |
| 23 | Solihull Moors | 10 | 41 | 0% | 0% | 89% |
| 24 | Gateshead | 4 | 34 | 0% | 0% | 98% |
We play every remaining National League fixture 5,000 times from the model. Ratings for this projection are pulled more strongly towards the league average, so a hot start alone doesn't decide the title. Play-offs aren't simulated.
Current National League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boreham Wood | 15 | +26 | 41 |
| 2 | Harrogate Town | 15 | +11 | 31 |
| 3 | Southend United | 15 | +12 | 29 |
| 4 | Yeovil Town | 15 | +17 | 28 |
| 5 | Worthing | 15 | +10 | 28 |
| 6 | Altrincham | 15 | +2 | 28 |
| 7 | AFC Fylde | 15 | +4 | 26 |
| 8 | Barrow | 14 | +7 | 24 |
| 9 | Carlisle United | 15 | +7 | 23 |
| 10 | FC Halifax Town | 15 | +6 | 21 |
| 11 | Kidderminster Harriers | 15 | +2 | 21 |
| 12 | Sutton United | 15 | -4 | 21 |
| 13 | Hornchurch | 15 | -6 | 21 |
| 14 | Woking | 15 | 0 | 18 |
| 15 | Forest Green Rovers | 13 | -1 | 18 |
| 16 | Aldershot Town | 15 | -1 | 18 |
| 17 | Eastleigh | 15 | -6 | 18 |
| 18 | Tamworth | 14 | -6 | 17 |
| 19 | Wealdstone | 15 | -7 | 15 |
| 20 | Hartlepool United | 15 | -8 | 15 |
| 21 | Boston United | 15 | -9 | 15 |
| 22 | Scunthorpe United | 14 | -10 | 10 |
| 23 | Solihull Moors | 15 | -22 | 10 |
| 24 | Gateshead | 14 | -24 | 4 |
Full table, corners, cards and shots: National League stats.
How these numbers are made
Results and match stats come from Football-Data.co.uk, which updates its files a few times a week. Includes results up to 28 October. Probabilities come from the TheyShoot model: a Poisson goals model built from every National League result this season, rating each team's attack and defence with home advantage, and pulled towards last season's league average early on. It's a statistical baseline, not a tip; fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. Data updated 30 October at 18:40 UK time.
FAQs
Who is top of the National League?
Boreham Wood, with 41 points from 15 games (results up to 28 October).
Who will win the National League?
Our model makes Boreham Wood favourites, finishing top in 91% of simulated seasons.
How are these National League predictions made?
From every result this season: each team gets an attack and a defence rating, adjusted for home advantage, and the model turns those into goal probabilities. Team news isn't included.