Ligue 1 Predictions & Betting Tips
By the TheyShoot editorial team. Updated
Lyon are the model's strongest Ligue 1 favourites in the next few days, with a 64% chance of beating Angers. 6 upcoming games are below with win, draw, BTTS and over 2.5 goals probabilities, followed by the projected final table.
Ligue 1 predictions: next 6 games
| Match | Kick-off (UK) | Home | Draw | Away | BTTS | Over 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troyes vs Le Mans | Sat 31 Oct, 19:45 | 33% | 25% | 43% | 57% | 54% |
| Strasbourg vs Auxerre | Sun 1 Nov, 14:00 | 49% | 21% | 31% | 73% | 75% |
| Lyon vs Angers | Sun 1 Nov, 16:15 | 64% | 20% | 15% | 50% | 55% |
| Paris FC vs Monaco | Sun 1 Nov, 16:15 | 42% | 27% | 31% | 49% | 44% |
| Marseille vs Toulouse | Sun 1 Nov, 19:45 | 52% | 21% | 27% | 66% | 67% |
| Lorient vs Brest | Mon 2 Nov, 19:45 | 41% | 28% | 31% | 47% | 41% |
Open any match for expected goals, likely scores, corners, cards and form.
Predicted Ligue 1 final table 2026-27
| # | Team | Pts now | Projected pts | Title | Top 3 | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint-Germain | 17 | 59 | 31% | 64% | 0% |
| 2 | Lyon | 14 | 54 | 11% | 35% | 0% |
| 3 | Lille | 15 | 54 | 11% | 34% | 0% |
| 4 | Monaco | 15 | 54 | 11% | 34% | 0% |
| 5 | Rennes | 16 | 54 | 10% | 33% | 0% |
| 6 | Paris FC | 14 | 53 | 8% | 27% | 0% |
| 7 | Lens | 13 | 51 | 6% | 22% | 1% |
| 8 | Marseille | 12 | 51 | 5% | 20% | 1% |
| 9 | Lorient | 12 | 48 | 2% | 10% | 2% |
| 10 | Toulouse | 10 | 46 | 1% | 7% | 3% |
| 11 | Brest | 9 | 46 | 1% | 6% | 4% |
| 12 | Nice | 11 | 46 | 1% | 5% | 4% |
| 13 | Auxerre | 10 | 42 | 0% | 1% | 12% |
| 14 | Strasbourg | 7 | 40 | 0% | 1% | 19% |
| 15 | Le Mans | 7 | 40 | 0% | 1% | 20% |
| 16 | Angers | 8 | 39 | 0% | 1% | 23% |
| 17 | Le Havre | 2 | 34 | 0% | 0% | 54% |
| 18 | Troyes | 5 | 34 | 0% | 0% | 56% |
We play every remaining Ligue 1 fixture 5,000 times from the model. Ratings for this projection are pulled more strongly towards the league average, so a hot start alone doesn't decide the title. Play-offs aren't simulated.
Current Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint-Germain | 8 | +7 | 17 |
| 2 | Rennes | 8 | +4 | 16 |
| 3 | Lille | 8 | +5 | 15 |
| 4 | Monaco | 8 | +4 | 15 |
| 5 | Lyon | 8 | +6 | 14 |
| 6 | Paris FC | 8 | +4 | 14 |
| 7 | Lens | 8 | +4 | 13 |
| 8 | Marseille | 8 | +5 | 12 |
| 9 | Lorient | 8 | +1 | 12 |
| 10 | Nice | 8 | -2 | 11 |
| 11 | Toulouse | 8 | +1 | 10 |
| 12 | Auxerre | 8 | -6 | 10 |
| 13 | Brest | 8 | +2 | 9 |
| 14 | Angers | 8 | -6 | 8 |
| 15 | Le Mans | 8 | -5 | 7 |
| 16 | Strasbourg | 8 | -6 | 7 |
| 17 | Troyes | 8 | -11 | 5 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 8 | -7 | 2 |
Full table, corners, cards and shots: Ligue 1 stats.
How these numbers are made
Results and match stats come from Football-Data.co.uk, which updates its files a few times a week. Includes results up to 26 October. Probabilities come from the TheyShoot model: a Poisson goals model built from every Ligue 1 result this season, rating each team's attack and defence with home advantage, and pulled towards last season's league average early on. It's a statistical baseline, not a tip; fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. Data updated 30 October at 18:40 UK time.
FAQs
Who is top of the Ligue 1?
Paris Saint-Germain, with 17 points from 8 games (results up to 26 October).
Who will win the Ligue 1?
Our model makes Paris Saint-Germain favourites, finishing top in 31% of simulated seasons.
How are these Ligue 1 predictions made?
From every result this season: each team gets an attack and a defence rating, adjusted for home advantage, and the model turns those into goal probabilities. Team news isn't included.