La Liga Predictions & Betting Tips
By the TheyShoot editorial team. Updated
Barcelona are the model's strongest La Liga favourites in the next few days, with a 77% chance of beating Alavés. 9 upcoming games are below with win, draw, BTTS and over 2.5 goals probabilities, followed by the projected final table.
La Liga predictions: next 9 games
| Match | Kick-off (UK) | Home | Draw | Away | BTTS | Over 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Levante vs Atlético Madrid | Sat 31 Oct, 13:00 | 27% | 23% | 50% | 61% | 60% |
| Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo | Sat 31 Oct, 15:15 | 31% | 28% | 41% | 48% | 43% |
| Real Betis vs Málaga | Sat 31 Oct, 17:30 | 67% | 20% | 14% | 49% | 56% |
| Barcelona vs Alavés | Sat 31 Oct, 20:00 | 77% | 13% | 10% | 61% | 76% |
| Getafe vs Sevilla | Sun 1 Nov, 13:00 | 29% | 27% | 44% | 48% | 43% |
| Racing Santander vs Real Madrid | Sun 1 Nov, 15:15 | 17% | 17% | 66% | 69% | 77% |
| Elche vs Valencia | Sun 1 Nov, 17:30 | 60% | 22% | 18% | 50% | 52% |
| Athletic Bilbao vs Real Sociedad | Sun 1 Nov, 20:00 | 51% | 23% | 26% | 59% | 58% |
| Deportivo La Coruña vs Osasuna | Mon 2 Nov, 20:00 | 60% | 22% | 18% | 52% | 54% |
Open any match for expected goals, likely scores, corners, cards and form.
Predicted La Liga final table 2026-27
| # | Team | Pts now | Projected pts | Title | Top 4 | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 27 | 82 | 77% | 100% | 0% |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 24 | 73 | 12% | 94% | 0% |
| 3 | Atlético Madrid | 25 | 72 | 10% | 92% | 0% |
| 4 | Real Betis | 20 | 60 | 1% | 35% | 0% |
| 5 | Real Sociedad | 19 | 59 | 0% | 27% | 0% |
| 6 | Sevilla | 17 | 56 | 0% | 16% | 0% |
| 7 | Athletic Bilbao | 12 | 54 | 0% | 11% | 2% |
| 8 | Villarreal | 12 | 52 | 0% | 7% | 2% |
| 9 | Alavés | 12 | 51 | 0% | 5% | 4% |
| 10 | Celta Vigo | 12 | 51 | 0% | 5% | 4% |
| 11 | Deportivo La Coruña | 11 | 49 | 0% | 3% | 6% |
| 12 | Elche | 10 | 49 | 0% | 3% | 9% |
| 13 | Levante | 10 | 48 | 0% | 2% | 9% |
| 14 | Espanyol | 8 | 45 | 0% | 1% | 18% |
| 15 | Rayo Vallecano | 9 | 45 | 0% | 1% | 21% |
| 16 | Racing Santander | 11 | 43 | 0% | 0% | 28% |
| 17 | Osasuna | 11 | 43 | 0% | 0% | 30% |
| 18 | Getafe | 9 | 41 | 0% | 0% | 40% |
| 19 | Valencia | 6 | 38 | 0% | 0% | 58% |
| 20 | Málaga | 5 | 36 | 0% | 0% | 69% |
We play every remaining La Liga fixture 5,000 times from the model. Ratings for this projection are pulled more strongly towards the league average, so a hot start alone doesn't decide the title. Play-offs aren't simulated.
Current La Liga table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 10 | +29 | 27 |
| 2 | Atlético Madrid | 10 | +12 | 25 |
| 3 | Real Madrid | 10 | +15 | 24 |
| 4 | Real Betis | 10 | +2 | 20 |
| 5 | Real Sociedad | 10 | +1 | 19 |
| 6 | Sevilla | 10 | 0 | 17 |
| 7 | Alavés | 10 | +3 | 12 |
| 8 | Athletic Bilbao | 9 | +3 | 12 |
| 9 | Celta Vigo | 10 | +3 | 12 |
| 10 | Villarreal | 10 | +1 | 12 |
| 11 | Deportivo La Coruña | 10 | 0 | 11 |
| 12 | Osasuna | 10 | -10 | 11 |
| 13 | Racing Santander | 10 | -11 | 11 |
| 14 | Levante | 10 | -3 | 10 |
| 15 | Elche | 10 | -3 | 10 |
| 16 | Rayo Vallecano | 9 | -8 | 9 |
| 17 | Getafe | 10 | -10 | 9 |
| 18 | Espanyol | 10 | -2 | 8 |
| 19 | Valencia | 10 | -10 | 6 |
| 20 | Málaga | 10 | -12 | 5 |
Full table, corners, cards and shots: La Liga stats.
How these numbers are made
Results and match stats come from Football-Data.co.uk, which updates its files a few times a week. Includes results up to 26 October. Probabilities come from the TheyShoot model: a Poisson goals model built from every La Liga result this season, rating each team's attack and defence with home advantage, and pulled towards last season's league average early on. It's a statistical baseline, not a tip; fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. Data updated 30 October at 18:40 UK time.
FAQs
Who is top of the La Liga?
Barcelona, with 27 points from 10 games (results up to 26 October).
Who will win the La Liga?
Our model makes Barcelona favourites, finishing top in 77% of simulated seasons.
How are these La Liga predictions made?
From every result this season: each team gets an attack and a defence rating, adjusted for home advantage, and the model turns those into goal probabilities. Team news isn't included.