Over 2.5 Goals Tips Today
By the TheyShoot editorial team. Updated
Chelsea vs Man Utd is the game most likely to see over 2.5 goals this round, at 70% in our model. The table ranks every upcoming Premier League match by its over 2.5 goals probability, with fair odds.
Over 2.5 goals probabilities, highest first
| Match | Kick-off (UK) | Over 2.5 | Fair odds | Expected goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea vs Man Utd | Sat 31 Oct, 12:30 | 70% | 1.43 | 3.60 |
| Man City vs Brighton | Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 | 69% | 1.45 | 3.56 |
| Spurs vs Crystal Palace | Sat 31 Oct, 17:30 | 54% | 1.84 | 2.86 |
| Hull City vs Ipswich Town | Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 | 53% | 1.88 | 2.80 |
| Newcastle vs Everton | Mon 2 Nov, 20:00 | 49% | 2.04 | 2.63 |
| Brentford vs Nott'm Forest | Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 | 45% | 2.22 | 2.48 |
| Bournemouth vs Leeds | Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 | 43% | 2.32 | 2.40 |
| Coventry City vs Sunderland | Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 | 43% | 2.32 | 2.40 |
| Aston Villa vs Fulham | Sat 31 Oct, 20:00 | 43% | 2.35 | 2.38 |
| Liverpool vs Arsenal | Sun 1 Nov, 16:30 | 38% | 2.66 | 2.19 |
How over 2.5 goals probability is worked out
The model adds both teams' expected goals and works out the chance of three or more goals in total. A match with 3.0 expected goals goes over 2.5 about 58% of the time.
How these numbers are made
Probabilities come from the TheyShoot model: a Poisson goals model built from every Premier League result this season, rating each team's attack and defence and adjusting for home advantage. Early in the season ratings are pulled towards the league average. It's a statistical baseline, not a tip; fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. Data updated 30 October at 22:15 UK time.