Liverpool vs Arsenal Prediction & Stats
By the TheyShoot editorial team. Updated
Our model makes Arsenal favourites: Liverpool 33%, draw 29%, Arsenal 38%. Kick-off is Sun 1 Nov, 16:30 UK time. Expected goals are 1.04–1.16, and both teams score in 44% of simulations.
Model view (not a tip)
- Liverpool
- 33%
- fair 3.08
- Draw
- 29%
- fair 3.44
- Arsenal
- 38%
- fair 2.61
Liverpool vs Arsenal prediction
The model expects 1.04 goals from Liverpool and 1.16 from Arsenal. Both teams to score is 44% likely, and over 2.5 goals 38%. The three most likely scores are 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (13%), 1-0 (12%).
Liverpool keep a clean sheet in 31% of simulations; Arsenal in 35%.
Form and league position
| Team | Position | Points | Last 5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool | 4 | 15 | W W L W D |
| Arsenal | 2 | 21 | W W W L W |
- Liverpool 2–0 Brighton
- Brentford 1–2 Liverpool
- Liverpool 0–3 Man City
- Arsenal 2–0 Everton
- Nott'm Forest 0–1 Arsenal
- Arsenal 2–1 Leeds
Where to watch Liverpool vs Arsenal
Kick-off is Sun 1 Nov, 16:30 UK time. It isn't listed for live UK TV yet; broadcasters confirm their picks a few weeks ahead.
Team news can change the picture. Check our betting news for the latest on injuries and suspensions before kick-off.
How these numbers are made
Probabilities come from the TheyShoot model: a Poisson goals model built from every Premier League result this season, rating each team's attack and defence and adjusting for home advantage. Early in the season ratings are pulled towards the league average. It's a statistical baseline, not a tip; fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. Data updated 30 October at 21:15 UK time.
FAQs
Who will win Liverpool vs Arsenal?
Our model gives Liverpool a 33% chance, the draw 29% and Arsenal 38%.
What time is Liverpool vs Arsenal?
Kick-off is Sun 1 Nov, 16:30 UK time.
Will both teams score in Liverpool vs Arsenal?
The model puts both teams to score at 44%.