Chelsea vs Manchester United Prediction & Stats
By the TheyShoot editorial team. Updated
Our model makes Chelsea favourites: Chelsea 55%, draw 20%, Manchester United 25%. Kick-off is Sat 31 Oct, 12:30 UK time. Expected goals are 2.18–1.42, and both teams score in 67% of simulations.
Model view (not a tip)
- Chelsea
- 55%
- fair 1.82
- Draw
- 20%
- fair 4.88
- Man Utd
- 25%
- fair 4.06
Chelsea vs Manchester United prediction
The model expects 2.18 goals from Chelsea and 1.42 from Manchester United. Both teams to score is 67% likely, and over 2.5 goals 70%. The three most likely scores are 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (8%), 3-1 (7%).
Chelsea keep a clean sheet in 24% of simulations; Manchester United in 11%.
Form and league position
| Team | Position | Points | Last 5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea | 5 | 13 | L W W L D |
| Manchester United | 16 | 7 | L D D D L |
- Chelsea 0–2 Spurs
- Everton 0–2 Chelsea
- Chelsea 5–1 Bournemouth
- Man Utd 0–3 Bournemouth
- Leeds 1–1 Man Utd
- Man Utd 1–1 Spurs
Where to watch Chelsea vs Manchester United
Kick-off is Sat 31 Oct, 12:30 UK time. It isn't listed for live UK TV yet; broadcasters confirm their picks a few weeks ahead.
Team news can change the picture. Check our betting news for the latest on injuries and suspensions before kick-off.
How these numbers are made
Probabilities come from the TheyShoot model: a Poisson goals model built from every Premier League result this season, rating each team's attack and defence and adjusting for home advantage. Early in the season ratings are pulled towards the league average. It's a statistical baseline, not a tip; fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. Data updated 30 October at 21:15 UK time.
FAQs
Who will win Chelsea vs Manchester United?
Our model gives Chelsea a 55% chance, the draw 20% and Manchester United 25%.
What time is Chelsea vs Manchester United?
Kick-off is Sat 31 Oct, 12:30 UK time.
Will both teams score in Chelsea vs Manchester United?
The model puts both teams to score at 67%.