BTTS Probability Calculator
By the TheyShoot editorial team. Updated
Enter both teams' expected goals to get the probability that both teams score, with fair odds. A team expected to score 1.5 goals scores at least once 77.7% of the time, and one expected to score 1.2 does so 69.9% of the time, so both score in 54.3% of matches (fair odds 1.84).
Between 0 and 8, e.g. 1.50
Between 0 and 8, e.g. 1.20
Both teams to score: yes
54.3%
Fair odds 1.84. A bookmaker price above this is bigger than these expected goals justify.
- Home team scores
- 77.7%
- fair 1.29
- Away team scores
- 69.9%
- fair 1.43
- BTTS no
- 45.7%
- fair 2.19
- Over 2.5 goals
- 50.6%
- fair 1.97
How do you use the BTTS calculator?
- Enter the home team's expected goals for the match, then the away team's.
- Read the BTTS yes probability and its fair odds, plus each team's chance of scoring and the over 2.5 goals chance.
- Compare the fair odds with the bookmaker's price. A bigger price than the fair odds suggests value.
How is the BTTS probability worked out?
The calculator treats each team's goals as a Poisson count with your expected goals as the average. A team fails to score with probability e−xG, so it scores at least once with probability 1 − e−xG. BTTS yes is the home team's scoring chance multiplied by the away team's.
This assumes the two teams' goals are independent. In real matches there's a small link (a team that goes behind attacks more), so treat the result as a baseline. It's the same method our BTTS predictions use, with expected goals from every Premier League result this season.
Worked example
With expected goals of 2.0 for the home team and 1.6 for the away team, the home side scores in 86.5% of matches and the away side in 79.8%, so BTTS is 69.0% (fair odds 1.45). Drop both to 1.0 and 0.8 and BTTS falls to 34.8% (fair odds 2.87).
Where do expected goals come from?
Use a model's match expected goals, not a team's season xG average, because the opponent matters. Our Premier League predictions show expected goals for every upcoming match, and the BTTS stats page shows how often each team's games actually end with both teams scoring.
FAQs
What does BTTS mean?
Both teams to score: the bet wins if each team scores at least one goal. Own goals count; goals in extra time and penalty shootouts usually don't.
What expected goals make BTTS a likely bet?
When both teams are expected to score about 1.2 goals or more, BTTS yes is more likely than not. At 1.2 each it's 48.8%, and at 1.5 each it's 60.4%.
Does the calculator use real match data?
It uses the expected goals you enter. For model figures based on this season's results, see our BTTS predictions page.