Newport County vs Chesterfield Prediction & Stats
By the TheyShoot editorial team. Updated
Our model makes Newport County favourites: Newport County 41%, draw 25%, Chesterfield 33%. Kick-off is Fri 30 Oct, 19:45 UK time (League Two). Expected goals are 1.47–1.30, and both teams score in 56% of simulations.
Model view (not a tip)
- Newport County
- 41%
- fair 2.43
- Draw
- 25%
- fair 3.95
- Chesterfield
- 33%
- fair 2.99
Newport County vs Chesterfield prediction
The model expects 1.47 goals from Newport County and 1.30 from Chesterfield. Both teams to score is 56% likely, and over 2.5 goals 52%. The three most likely scores are 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (9%), 2-1 (9%).
Corners and cards
- Expected corners: 7.8 (Newport County 3.3, Chesterfield 4.5). Over 9.5 corners: 28%.
- Expected cards: 4.6. Over 3.5 cards: 65%. Referee: Z Kennard-Kettle.
Form and league position
| Team | Position | Points | Last 5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newport County | 16 | 15 | D W D D L |
| Chesterfield | 7 | 19 | W D L D W |
- Cheltenham Town 1–0 Newport County
- Rotherham United 2–2 Newport County
- Newport County 1–1 York City
- Chesterfield 5–1 Crewe Alexandra
- Chesterfield 1–1 Colchester United
- Port Vale 1–0 Chesterfield
Team news can change the picture: the model doesn't know about injuries or rotation. See every League Two game on our League Two predictions page.
How these numbers are made
Results and match stats come from Football-Data.co.uk, which updates its files a few times a week. Includes results up to 27 October. Probabilities come from the TheyShoot model: a Poisson goals model built from every League Two result this season, rating each team's attack and defence with home advantage, and pulled towards last season's league average early on. It's a statistical baseline, not a tip; fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. Data updated 30 October at 18:40 UK time.
FAQs
Who will win Newport County vs Chesterfield?
Our model gives Newport County a 41% chance, the draw 25% and Chesterfield 33%.
What time is Newport County vs Chesterfield?
Kick-off is Fri 30 Oct, 19:45 UK time.
Will both teams score in Newport County vs Chesterfield?
The model puts both teams to score at 56%.