Premier League Table Predictor
By the TheyShoot editorial team. Updated
Manchester City are projected to win the Premier League, finishing top in 34% of 10,000 simulated seasons with about 70 points. Coventry City, Sunderland and Crystal Palace are the most likely to go down. The predicted final table below updates after every result.
Predicted Premier League final table 2026/27
| # | Team | Pts now | Projected pts | Title | Top 4 | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 21 | 70 | 34% | 87% | 0% |
| 2 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 16 | 69 | 32% | 87% | 0% |
| 3 | Arsenal | 21 | 68 | 26% | 83% | 0% |
| 4 | Liverpool | 15 | 59 | 3% | 35% | 1% |
| 5 | Chelsea | 13 | 57 | 2% | 25% | 1% |
| 6 | Brentford | 11 | 56 | 1% | 23% | 2% |
| 7 | Leeds United | 11 | 55 | 1% | 16% | 3% |
| 8 | Hull City | 10 | 52 | 0% | 8% | 6% |
| 9 | Aston Villa | 11 | 51 | 0% | 6% | 8% |
| 10 | Newcastle United | 11 | 51 | 0% | 6% | 9% |
| 11 | Everton | 10 | 50 | 0% | 6% | 10% |
| 12 | AFC Bournemouth | 9 | 50 | 0% | 5% | 10% |
| 13 | Tottenham Hotspur | 9 | 48 | 0% | 3% | 13% |
| 14 | Ipswich Town | 10 | 48 | 0% | 3% | 16% |
| 15 | Fulham | 8 | 47 | 0% | 2% | 18% |
| 16 | Manchester United | 7 | 46 | 0% | 2% | 22% |
| 17 | Nottingham Forest | 6 | 44 | 0% | 1% | 33% |
| 18 | Crystal Palace | 7 | 41 | 0% | 0% | 48% |
| 19 | Sunderland | 5 | 41 | 0% | 0% | 50% |
| 20 | Coventry City | 6 | 41 | 0% | 0% | 51% |
How the table predictor works
We play every remaining Premier League fixture 10,000 times. Because the season is long, team ratings for this projection are pulled more strongly towards the league average than for single-match predictions, so a hot start alone doesn't decide the title.
Each simulated game's score is drawn from the model's expected goals for both teams, so stronger teams win more often but upsets still happen. Adding those results to the current table gives 10,000 possible final tables; the percentages show how often each team finished first, in the top four and in the bottom three.
Places are decided by points, then goal difference, then goals scored, as in the real Premier League.
How these numbers are made
Probabilities come from the TheyShoot model: a Poisson goals model built from every Premier League result this season, rating each team's attack and defence and adjusting for home advantage. Early in the season ratings are pulled towards the league average. It's a statistical baseline, not a tip; fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. Data updated 30 October at 21:15 UK time.
FAQs
Who will win the Premier League?
Our model makes Manchester City favourites, winning the title in 34% of simulated seasons (updated 2026-10-30).
How many points are needed to stay up?
Historically around 35–40 points has usually been enough; the relegation column shows each team's current chance of finishing in the bottom three.