NHL Playoff Chances
By the TheyShoot editorial team. Updated
The Carolina Hurricanes have the best NHL playoff chances, making the playoffs in 97% of 10,000 simulated seasons. Of the Canadian teams, the Edmonton Oilers are at 95%, the Montréal Canadiens are at 66% and the Toronto Maple Leafs are at 46%. Each team has about 84 games in the season; the chances update after every game.
Model view (not a tip)
16 teams are more likely than not to make the playoffs; 16 places are available.
Eastern Conference playoff chances
| Team | Div | GP | Pts | Games left | Projected pts | Playoffs | Win division |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carolina Hurricanes | Met | 15 | 24 | 69 | 108 | 97% | 69% |
| Boston Bruins | Atl | 14 | 19 | 70 | 104 | 90% | 46% |
| Tampa Bay Lightning | Atl | 12 | 17 | 72 | 98 | 71% | 16% |
| Washington Capitals | Met | 12 | 16 | 72 | 96 | 69% | 10% |
| Montréal Canadiens | Atl | 13 | 18 | 71 | 97 | 66% | 14% |
| New York Islanders | Met | 13 | 16 | 71 | 95 | 63% | 8% |
| New Jersey Devils | Met | 13 | 16 | 71 | 95 | 61% | 7% |
| Florida Panthers | Atl | 13 | 16 | 71 | 94 | 52% | 7% |
| Toronto Maple Leafs | Atl | 15 | 16 | 69 | 92 | 46% | 6% |
| New York Rangers | Met | 14 | 15 | 70 | 92 | 45% | 4% |
| Ottawa Senators | Atl | 14 | 17 | 70 | 92 | 44% | 5% |
| Detroit Red Wings | Atl | 13 | 15 | 71 | 90 | 34% | 3% |
| Pittsburgh Penguins | Met | 13 | 12 | 71 | 88 | 26% | 1% |
| Buffalo Sabres | Atl | 13 | 15 | 71 | 88 | 23% | 2% |
| Columbus Blue Jackets | Met | 11 | 10 | 73 | 84 | 13% | 1% |
| Philadelphia Flyers | Met | 15 | 10 | 69 | 73 | 1% | <1% |
Western Conference playoff chances
| Team | Div | GP | Pts | Games left | Projected pts | Playoffs | Win division |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edmonton Oilers | Pac | 13 | 20 | 71 | 103 | 95% | 47% |
| Minnesota Wild | Cen | 15 | 21 | 69 | 102 | 94% | 43% |
| Vegas Golden Knights | Pac | 14 | 19 | 70 | 101 | 92% | 34% |
| Colorado Avalanche | Cen | 13 | 15 | 71 | 98 | 84% | 21% |
| Utah Mammoth | Cen | 14 | 18 | 70 | 97 | 81% | 18% |
| Seattle Kraken | Pac | 13 | 17 | 71 | 96 | 80% | 15% |
| Dallas Stars | Cen | 13 | 15 | 71 | 95 | 70% | 11% |
| St. Louis Blues | Cen | 13 | 13 | 71 | 91 | 53% | 5% |
| San Jose Sharks | Pac | 14 | 15 | 70 | 88 | 38% | 2% |
| Nashville Predators | Cen | 13 | 13 | 71 | 87 | 34% | 2% |
| Los Angeles Kings | Pac | 12 | 10 | 72 | 84 | 24% | 1% |
| Anaheim Ducks | Pac | 13 | 11 | 71 | 84 | 24% | 1% |
| Winnipeg Jets | Cen | 13 | 11 | 71 | 83 | 17% | <1% |
| Calgary Flames | Pac | 12 | 10 | 72 | 79 | 10% | <1% |
| Chicago Blackhawks | Cen | 13 | 8 | 71 | 74 | 2% | <1% |
| Vancouver Canucks | Pac | 15 | 7 | 69 | 71 | 1% | 0% |
What are the Canadian teams' playoff chances?
- Edmonton Oilers: 95% to make the playoffs, with about 103 points projected from 20 now.
- Montréal Canadiens: 66% to make the playoffs, with about 97 points projected from 18 now.
- Toronto Maple Leafs: 46% to make the playoffs, with about 92 points projected from 16 now.
- Ottawa Senators: 44% to make the playoffs, with about 92 points projected from 17 now.
- Winnipeg Jets: 17% to make the playoffs, with about 83 points projected from 11 now.
- Calgary Flames: 10% to make the playoffs, with about 79 points projected from 10 now.
- Vancouver Canucks: 1% to make the playoffs, with about 71 points projected from 7 now.
The Toronto Maple Leafs make the playoffs in 46% of simulations and win the Atlantic Division in 6%.
How does the NHL playoff format work?
Sixteen teams qualify: the top three in each division, plus the two best remaining teams in each conference as wild cards. Teams level on points are split by regulation wins first. In the first round, the division winner with more points plays the second wild card, and the other division winner plays the first wild card.
How these numbers are made
The TheyShoot NHL model rates every team's attack and defence from goals scored and allowed per game this season, pulled strongly towards the league average for long-range projections, with a small home-ice edge. Games level after regulation go to overtime or a shootout, treated as a coin flip. Each remaining game is played 10,000 times, then the playoffs are drawn in the NHL format (top three in each division plus two wild cards per conference) and every best-of-seven series is played out. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability in American format, with no bookmaker margin. Data updated October 30 at 6:05 p.m. ET.
FAQs
Which team has the best chance of making the NHL playoffs?
The Carolina Hurricanes, at 97% in our simulations (updated 2026-10-30).
What are the Leafs' playoff chances?
The Toronto Maple Leafs make the playoffs in 46% of our simulated seasons, with about 92 points projected (updated 2026-10-30).
How many points will it take to make the NHL playoffs this season?
It changes every season. On current projections, the eighth-placed team finishes with about 94 and 91 points in the Eastern (94) and the Western (91) (updated 2026-10-30).